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By Andrew sylva
In an age when nations across the globe are striving to strengthen democratic institutions, Guinea-Bissau has once again slipped into the grip of political instability. The latest military interference — yet another in a tragic and exhausting series — threatens not only its own national cohesion but also poses grave implications for West Africa, Africa at large, and the wider international community. As the political philosopher Edmund Burke once warned, “The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion.” Guinea-Bissau’s repeated surrender of civilian governance to the whims of military strongmen is a delusion the region can no longer afford.
A country perpetually at the edge
Guinea-Bissau has, quite regrettably, become a “country of concern” in global governance circles. Since its independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has experienced more coups, attempted coups, and political assassinations than any other country in West Africa. Power struggles between military factions have defined its political history, making stability a luxury that citizens have never fully enjoyed.
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This latest coup — an egregious interruption of a legitimate electoral process — represents not just the fall of a government but a systemic failure of political culture. The ballot box, the symbolic instrument of the people’s will, once again bows to the barrel of the gun. The damage is enormous:
Continuity of government is disrupted.
Development is halted. Investor confidence evaporates. Citizens are traumatized, living in cycles of fear and uncertainty.
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As Kofi Annan cautioned, “Without good governance, development is impossible.” Guinea-Bissau’s governance crisis is therefore a developmental crisis — one that rolls back years of regional progress.
A Show of Shame: When Elections Become Hostages
Military governments have, historically, done more harm than good in Africa. They destabilise institutions, erode constitutional norms, repress freedoms, divert national wealth, and leave nations poorer than they met them. The pattern is consistent: democratic failure leads to authoritarian rise, and authoritarianism begets national decay.
To interrupt or scuttle a well-crafted electoral process in Guinea-Bissau is, in every sense, a “show of shame.” Elections are not mere rituals; they are the heartbeat of democracy. They represent the people’s consent, their expectations, and their hopes for a better life. For soldiers to barge into that sacred process is to trample on the soul of the nation.
If Guinea-Bissau must move forward, the election results must be announced, and the rightful winner declared without delay. Anything short of this deepens the crisis and rewards illegality.
Regional implications: The fire next door
West Africa is already grappling with a troubling resurgence of military coups — from Mali to Burkina Faso, from Niger to Guinea. Each new coup in one country increases the likelihood of similar adventurism in others. This “contagion effect” threatens to undo decades of democratic consolidation and peacebuilding.
The Guinea-Bissau coup has at least five regional consequences:
1. It weakens Ecowas’s authority and emboldens anti-democratic forces elsewhere.
2. It erodes investor confidence in the entire sub-region, not just in the coup-affected country.
3. It fuels insecurity, as weak civilian institutions cannot effectively fight organized crime, jihadist insurgencies, or illicit trafficking.
4. It encourages political actors to seek power through violence, rather than through democratic processes.
5. It undermines regional integration efforts, as coups create unstable borders and unpredictable political environments.
As one African proverb says, “When the neighbor’s roof is on fire, your own home is not safe.”
Guinea-Bissau’s instability is, therefore, not its crisis alone; it is a regional emergency.
Continental and global repercussions
Africa’s credibility on the world stage rests significantly on its ability to uphold democracy, protect human rights, and guarantee stable governance. When coups erupt repeatedly in one region, the entire continent is painted with a broad brush of instability — affecting trade, diplomacy, foreign direct investment, and global partnerships.
Globally
Transnational criminal networks exploit governance vacuums.
Drug trafficking routes become more active (a problem Guinea-Bissau has faced for years).
International peacekeeping resources become overstretched.
Donor confidence declines, reducing development assistance.
Furthermore, global political actors begin to intervene — sometimes subtly, sometimes aggressively — in ways that undermine African agency. This is a scenario Africa must avoid at all costs.
The way forward: Ecowas and AU must act decisively
Ecowas and the African Union must treat the Guinea-Bissau situation with urgency and firmness. Their indecision in past crises created environments where soldiers felt empowered to seize power at will.
The Gambian experience in 2017 provides a clear roadmap. When Yahya Jammeh refused to leave office after losing the election, Ecowas took a principled stand. Through diplomacy backed by force, it compelled him to exit power and ensured that democracy prevailed.
The same resolve must be applied in Guinea-Bissau.
Anything less emboldens the coup syndicate in West Africa.
Concrete steps must include:
1. Immediate condemnation and sanctions on coup leaders.
2. Deployment of a mediation team with clear timelines.
3. Pressure to restore the electoral process and declare authentic results.
4. A regional security mission, if necessary, to protect civilian institutions.
5. Long-term reforms, helping Guinea-Bissau build strong democratic structures free from military interference.
As Nelson Mandela famously stated, “It is in your hands to create a better world for all who live in it.” For Ecowas and AU, this is a defining moment to either uphold or betray Africa’s democratic aspirations.
A plea for stability and sanity
Enough of these theatrics called military coups.
Enough of this unending cycle of disruption and despair. Enough of mortgaging the future of millions for the ambitions of a handful of armed adventurers.
Guinea-Bissau deserves peace.
Its citizens deserve dignity.
West Africa deserves stability.
The world must not stand as a passive spectator while democracy in Guinea-Bissau is strangled. The ballot must regain supremacy over the gun.
West Africa’s destiny — and indeed Africa’s democratic future — depends on how this moment is handled. History is watching. The people are watching. The globe is watching.
And the verdict must be clear:
When guns override the ballot, liberty dies. But when the ballot is defended, democracy lives.
