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Global Risks 2026-2036: The age of competition

As 2026 dawns, the world stands at an inflection point, teetering between old certainties and a new era defined by fierce rivalry and fragmenting alliances. The familiar frameworks that once held the global order together are in retreat, challenged by a volatile mix of kinetic conflicts, economic weaponization, and technological upheaval. This emerging landscape is best described as an Age of Competition, where nations deploy trade restrictions, sanctions, and supply chain control as instruments of power, rivaling traditional military confrontations. The latest data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Perception Survey captures this shifting terrain, revealing a world increasingly fractured along geopolitical, economic, societal, and technological fault lines. At the forefront of global risks in 2026 is geoeconomic confrontation, now the top concern among surveyed experts, edging out state-based armed conflict which had held the spotlight in previous years. Nearly one in five respondents identified the weaponization of trade, finance, and technology as the most likely source of a global crisis this year. This shift underscores a broader recognition that warfare has expanded beyond battlefields, evolving into a complex contest for economic dominance and influence. Sanctions regimes, capital controls, and strategic regulations have become tools wielded with precision, aiming to tilt the balance of power without triggering open conflict. Meanwhile, traditional state-based conflicts, though slightly deprioritized, remain a significant threat, reminding us that military flashpoints have not disappeared but are now part of a wider spectrum of contestation. This landscape of competition extends beyond geopolitics into the societal fabric of nations. Societal polarization ranks high as a persistent risk, fueled by widening inequality and the erosion of civic freedoms. The survey highlights that inequality, while ninth in immediate concern, remains deeply intertwined with societal divides, exacerbating tensions within and between states. The erosion of human rights and civic liberties has climbed in prominence, signaling alarm over democratic backsliding and authoritarian tendencies gaining ground in various regions. These societal fractures are not isolated but amplified by the spread of misinformation and disinformation, which has surged into the top five risks, corroding public discourse and undermining trust in institutions. Technological disruptions loom large on this horizon, with adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence and cyber insecurity entering the top ten global risks. The rapid advancement of AI technologies introduces novel vulnerabilities, ranging from automated misinformation campaigns to cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure. Respondents view these technological risks as still emerging but expect their impact to grow steadily. Cyber insecurity, ranked ninth, reflects the increasing sophistication and frequency of attacks that threaten the digital backbone of governments, businesses, and societies. Together, these technological challenges compound the complexity of the risk environment, intertwining with geopolitical and societal risks to create a multifaceted crisis landscape. Environmental risks, while somewhat less prioritized in the immediate term compared to geopolitical and societal threats, remain a persistent and underlying concern. Extreme weather events, though dropping slightly in urgency on the survey, still occupy a top-three spot, reflecting ongoing damage from climate change-driven phenomena. The economic toll of these events is staggering, with billions lost annually to storms, floods, and wildfires. Although respondents have deprioritized critical changes to Earth systems and biodiversity loss in the short term, the looming environmental crisis continues to threaten long-term stability. This gap between urgency and action highlights the persistent challenge of balancing immediate geopolitical rivalries with the slow-burning but existential threat of climate change. Looking beyond 2026, the survey projects a deepening of these risks by 2028, with geoeconomic confrontation solidifying its position as the leading threat. The escalation of economic weaponization is expected to broaden, encompassing not just sanctions but also more subtle forms of supply chain control and regulatory pressure. Misinformation and disinformation rise sharply in perceived severity, reflecting growing concerns over the weaponization of information in a digitally interconnected world. State-based armed conflict, while slightly less immediate, remains a critical concern, especially as nationalist and protectionist sentiments harden, fueling regional conflicts and proxy wars. The societal risks in 2028 paint a picture of compounding divides. Inequality and erosion of human rights persist as significant issues, with involuntary migration and displacement emerging as growing concerns amid conflict and climate pressures. Societal polarization intensifies, driven by cultural and political cleavages deepened by technological manipulation of information. This polarized environment threatens democratic governance and social cohesion, undermining the capacity for collective action on global challenges. Technological threats are expected to evolve in tandem with geopolitical and societal tensions. Cyber insecurity remains a top concern, with attacks on critical infrastructure predicted to increase in both frequency and sophistication. While adverse outcomes of AI technologies rank lower in the near term, their potential for disruption grows as AI systems become more embedded in everyday life and strategic decision-making processes. The interplay between these technological risks and misinformation campaigns forms a dangerous feedback loop, amplifying instability. Environmental risks, though somewhat overshadowed in the short term, remain a backdrop to all other concerns. Extreme weather events continue to wreak havoc, while pollution and ecosystem collapse threaten to undermine the natural systems that support human life. The disconnect between these growing environmental pressures and their lower ranking in immediate risk perception points to a dangerous complacency, risking delayed responses to worsening climate impacts. This decade-long horizon, stretching to 2036, suggests that the Age of Competition will not be a fleeting phase but a sustained era of rivalry and fragility. The interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic weaponization, societal divides, technological upheavals, and environmental degradation will define global risk for years to come. Institutions and rules that once provided stability are under siege, requiring novel approaches to diplomacy, governance, and resilience-building. The challenge for policymakers, businesses, and civil society is to navigate this fractured landscape with foresight and cooperation. Addressing geoeconomic confrontation demands new frameworks for managing economic interdependence without tipping into zero-sum competition. Societal polarization and inequality require renewed commitments to inclusive governance and social justice. Technological risks call for robust regulation, ethical standards, and international cooperation to prevent misuse and build trust. And environmental imperatives must be integrated into all aspects of strategic planning, recognizing that climate stability underpins all other dimensions of security. In this precarious moment, the global community faces a choice: deepen the divides and competition or seek new pathways to cooperation and shared resilience. The risks charted for 2026 through 2036 warn of a world fraught with conflict and uncertainty, but they also underscore the urgent need for dialogue, innovation, and solidarity. The Age of Competition is here, but it need not define the future if leaders and citizens alike rise to confront the challenges with courage and creativity. This is a moment to reflect on the costs of rivalry and the possibilities of collaboration. The coming decade will test the world’s capacity to manage complexity and change, balancing national interests with global imperatives. The stakes could not be higher, and the time to act is now. The world hangs in the balance, poised on a precipice that demands both caution and boldness, an inflection point that will shape the trajectory of human history for generations to come. Post Views: 165

admin Published: January 22, 2026 | Updated: January 22, 2026 6 minutes read

At the forefront of global risks in 2026 is geoeconomic confrontation, now the top concern among surveyed experts, edging out state-based armed conflict which had held the spotlight in previous years. Nearly one in five respondents identified the weaponization of trade, finance, and technology as the most likely source of a global crisis this year. This shift underscores a broader recognition that warfare has expanded beyond battlefields, evolving into a complex contest for economic dominance and influence. Sanctions regimes, capital controls, and strategic regulations have become tools wielded with precision, aiming to tilt the balance of power without triggering open conflict. Meanwhile, traditional state-based conflicts, though slightly deprioritized, remain a significant threat, reminding us that military flashpoints have not disappeared but are now part of a wider spectrum of contestation.

This landscape of competition extends beyond geopolitics into the societal fabric of nations. Societal polarization ranks high as a persistent risk, fueled by widening inequality and the erosion of civic freedoms. The survey highlights that inequality, while ninth in immediate concern, remains deeply intertwined with societal divides, exacerbating tensions within and between states. The erosion of human rights and civic liberties has climbed in prominence, signaling alarm over democratic backsliding and authoritarian tendencies gaining ground in various regions. These societal fractures are not isolated but amplified by the spread of misinformation and disinformation, which has surged into the top five risks, corroding public discourse and undermining trust in institutions.

Technological disruptions loom large on this horizon, with adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence and cyber insecurity entering the top ten global risks. The rapid advancement of AI technologies introduces novel vulnerabilities, ranging from automated misinformation campaigns to cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure. Respondents view these technological risks as still emerging but expect their impact to grow steadily. Cyber insecurity, ranked ninth, reflects the increasing sophistication and frequency of attacks that threaten the digital backbone of governments, businesses, and societies. Together, these technological challenges compound the complexity of the risk environment, intertwining with geopolitical and societal risks to create a multifaceted crisis landscape.

Environmental risks, while somewhat less prioritized in the immediate term compared to geopolitical and societal threats, remain a persistent and underlying concern. Extreme weather events, though dropping slightly in urgency on the survey, still occupy a top-three spot, reflecting ongoing damage from climate change-driven phenomena. The economic toll of these events is staggering, with billions lost annually to storms, floods, and wildfires. Although respondents have deprioritized critical changes to Earth systems and biodiversity loss in the short term, the looming environmental crisis continues to threaten long-term stability. This gap between urgency and action highlights the persistent challenge of balancing immediate geopolitical rivalries with the slow-burning but existential threat of climate change.

Looking beyond 2026, the survey projects a deepening of these risks by 2028, with geoeconomic confrontation solidifying its position as the leading threat. The escalation of economic weaponization is expected to broaden, encompassing not just sanctions but also more subtle forms of supply chain control and regulatory pressure. Misinformation and disinformation rise sharply in perceived severity, reflecting growing concerns over the weaponization of information in a digitally interconnected world. State-based armed conflict, while slightly less immediate, remains a critical concern, especially as nationalist and protectionist sentiments harden, fueling regional conflicts and proxy wars.

The societal risks in 2028 paint a picture of compounding divides. Inequality and erosion of human rights persist as significant issues, with involuntary migration and displacement emerging as growing concerns amid conflict and climate pressures. Societal polarization intensifies, driven by cultural and political cleavages deepened by technological manipulation of information. This polarized environment threatens democratic governance and social cohesion, undermining the capacity for collective action on global challenges.

Technological threats are expected to evolve in tandem with geopolitical and societal tensions. Cyber insecurity remains a top concern, with attacks on critical infrastructure predicted to increase in both frequency and sophistication. While adverse outcomes of AI technologies rank lower in the near term, their potential for disruption grows as AI systems become more embedded in everyday life and strategic decision-making processes. The interplay between these technological risks and misinformation campaigns forms a dangerous feedback loop, amplifying instability.

Environmental risks, though somewhat overshadowed in the short term, remain a backdrop to all other concerns. Extreme weather events continue to wreak havoc, while pollution and ecosystem collapse threaten to undermine the natural systems that support human life. The disconnect between these growing environmental pressures and their lower ranking in immediate risk perception points to a dangerous complacency, risking delayed responses to worsening climate impacts.

This decade-long horizon, stretching to 2036, suggests that the Age of Competition will not be a fleeting phase but a sustained era of rivalry and fragility. The interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic weaponization, societal divides, technological upheavals, and environmental degradation will define global risk for years to come. Institutions and rules that once provided stability are under siege, requiring novel approaches to diplomacy, governance, and resilience-building.

The challenge for policymakers, businesses, and civil society is to navigate this fractured landscape with foresight and cooperation. Addressing geoeconomic confrontation demands new frameworks for managing economic interdependence without tipping into zero-sum competition. Societal polarization and inequality require renewed commitments to inclusive governance and social justice. Technological risks call for robust regulation, ethical standards, and international cooperation to prevent misuse and build trust. And environmental imperatives must be integrated into all aspects of strategic planning, recognizing that climate stability underpins all other dimensions of security.

In this precarious moment, the global community faces a choice: deepen the divides and competition or seek new pathways to cooperation and shared resilience. The risks charted for 2026 through 2036 warn of a world fraught with conflict and uncertainty, but they also underscore the urgent need for dialogue, innovation, and solidarity. The Age of Competition is here, but it need not define the future if leaders and citizens alike rise to confront the challenges with courage and creativity.

This is a moment to reflect on the costs of rivalry and the possibilities of collaboration. The coming decade will test the world’s capacity to manage complexity and change, balancing national interests with global imperatives. The stakes could not be higher, and the time to act is now. The world hangs in the balance, poised on a precipice that demands both caution and boldness, an inflection point that will shape the trajectory of human history for generations to come.

Post Views: 165